Official-Liar
0x345f52da682f69e7e1d10086160e6952739aa050
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$515.09
Total PnL
$-121.23
Realised
$4.14
Win rate
8%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
241 shares @ 51.7¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$136.23
$11.62
- YES
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?
224 shares @ 56.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$118.66
$-6.72
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
300 shares @ 39.6¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$94.50
$-24.38
- YES
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?
239 shares @ 40.9¢·now 35.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$84.69
$-13.02
- YES
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
153 shares @ 46.4¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$66.39
$-4.36
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?
47 shares @ 30.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$14.61
$0.47
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
57 shares @ 33.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-19.00
- UNDER
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5
19 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- SPURS
Thunder vs. Spurs
19 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- CAVALIERS
Knicks vs. Cavaliers
18 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?$11.01Aug 14, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?$51.10Aug 14, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$11.20Aug 14, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?$8.26Aug 14, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$1.87Aug 14, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?$62.50Aug 14, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 03:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 03:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$2.55Aug 14, 02:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 08:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.