Bite-Sized-Tension
0x348b73dfbd85d8feeb4bff5398fdf54d944bac22
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$14.85
Total PnL
$-108.24
Realised
$-2.29
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
8 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.61
$-0.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.05
$0.05
- NO
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1 shares @ 98.4¢·now 99.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.18
$0.01
- YES
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?
285 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-77.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on January 31?
14 shares @ 99.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- SPIRIT
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs
13 shares @ 77.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-03-13?
3 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?
2 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-03?$9.33Jul 4, 01:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-03?$1.44Jul 3, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia win on 2026-07-03?$27.59Jul 3, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia win on 2026-07-03?$51.09Jul 3, 06:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?$14.03Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?$16.06Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP reach $3.00 in June?$17.07Jul 1, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $160 in June?$1.80Jul 1, 06:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$12.01Jun 30, 22:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?$1.14Jun 26, 01:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $6.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.