Productive-Mailman
0x34f3d3b49f792072530fc545cd37ba77f61dcbd3
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-188.37
Realised
$-11.42
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
676 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-0.68
- YES
Will February 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
340 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?
340 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
340 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
230 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.14
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?$100.00Jun 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$220.00Jun 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?$300.00Jun 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?$400.00Jun 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?$700.00Jun 2, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$198.95Jun 2, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$440.09Jun 2, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?$342.07Jun 2, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?$41.14May 28, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?$29.94May 28, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?$20.96May 28, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?$199.42May 28, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?$198.75May 28, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?$2.77May 28, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?$4.99May 28, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?$196.88May 27, 15:16 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?$100.00May 27, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?$91.00May 25, 09:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24?$350.00May 25, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24?$99.70May 24, 15:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $112.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 16:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 2, 13:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.