Shocked-Surround
0x3514f0fffe1af184eed71c30247c864e4f6de337
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-724.96
Realised
$-44.60
Win rate
10%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 15?
585 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-49.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 21?
205 shares @ 37.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-77.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 20?
167 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 21?
150 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 20?
134 shares @ 20.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-28.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 20?
118 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 21?
115 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-50.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 20?
108 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-12.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 21?
107 shares @ 38.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-41.05
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
93 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-49.99
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$3.67May 22, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 21?$0.07May 21, 19:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21?$9.14May 21, 19:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 21?$1.19May 21, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 21?$13.21May 21, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 21?$17.66May 21, 16:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$21.12May 21, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$8.24May 21, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$6.75May 21, 11:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$31.75May 21, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$20.00May 21, 10:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$21.43May 21, 10:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$20.83May 21, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$15.00May 21, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$15.29May 21, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 21?$11.15May 21, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 21?$13.00May 21, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 21?$60.85May 21, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 21?$1.08May 21, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 21?$6.08May 21, 10:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $8.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 08:21 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.