New-Cygnet
0x3536e50e675e5dc19d250929f7a22cf7e12da5ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-306.16
Realised
$32.38
Win rate
89%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 27?
928 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on May 5?
211 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 27?
66 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
60 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-4.20
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
56 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.39
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
50 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
50 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
50 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$0.80Jul 30, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.24Jul 30, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.65Jul 30, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$2.07Jul 30, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.24Jul 30, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$3.60Jul 30, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$3.17Jul 30, 17:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$6.35Jul 30, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$3.15Jul 30, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$2.25Jul 30, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$1.35Jul 30, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$0.01Jul 30, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$0.52Jul 30, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$1.87Jul 30, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$0.80Jul 30, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$0.22Jul 30, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$1.38Jul 30, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$1.31Jul 30, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$0.35Jul 30, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$0.90Jul 30, 16:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 00:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 17:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.