Admirable-Crocus
0x354aa0f6601e053e47a4000388f86e4fd3d18e81
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$238.80
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-3.30
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- YES
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
154 shares @ 24.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$153.57
$115.79
- YES
US recession by end of 2026?
463 shares @ 23.9¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$81.03
$-29.76
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
86 shares @ 4.7¢·now 4.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.65
$-0.38
- YES
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
72 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.54
$-0.44
- YES
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?
949 shares @ 52.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-494.67
- YES
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
500 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-52.90
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
384 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.79
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
381 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-12.47
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
365 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-24.10
- YES
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
345 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-16.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$3.60Apr 9, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$19.00Apr 9, 19:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?$10.00Mar 11, 10:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?$13.96Mar 11, 10:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?$58.82Mar 11, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$1.34Feb 4, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$1.47Feb 4, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$2.36Feb 4, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$1.71Feb 4, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$4.27Feb 4, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$10.85Feb 4, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$23.00Feb 4, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$1.64Feb 4, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$3.16Feb 4, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$5.00Feb 4, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$5.20Feb 2, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$10.00Feb 1, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.04Jan 4, 07:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?$10.00Jan 3, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro out by March 31, 2026?$3.10Jan 3, 07:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $3.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 5, 10:44 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 9, 19:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.