Hard-Norm
0x357ecb1969b0a288d37e6a28223e620ef2082a0c
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.2K
Total PnL
$-391.6K
Realised
$-13.7K
Win rate
37%
68 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
21428 shares @ 11.0¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.7K
$353.56
- YES
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
16065 shares @ 3.3¢·now 1.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$281.13
$-255.07
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
10000 shares @ 2.2¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$254.00
$34.00
- HANWHA LIFE ESPORTS
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5)
250907 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2025$0.00
$-13.1K
- CTBC FLYING OYSTER
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5)
180231 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-23.3K
- G2 ESPORTS
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)
158262 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-8.2K
- G2 ESPORTS
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner
142678 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.2K
- TEAM SECRET WHALES
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3)
142118 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 23, 2025$0.00
$-4.3K
- T1
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner
115547 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-15.8K
- FLYQUEST
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner
109749 shares @ 24.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 22, 2025$0.00
$-26.5K
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.32Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.35Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Jul 9, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
37% win rate over 68 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
68 closed markets, 37% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $2.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 68 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.