0x3585486d9e99f6509eaf034b5ca65876cc251595
0x3585486d9e99f6509eaf034b5ca65876cc251595
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$362.09
Total PnL
$-6.01
Realised
$-7.47
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?
44 shares @ 44.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$44.00
$24.64
- NO
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?
28 shares @ 94.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$27.60
$1.60
- NO
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?
26 shares @ 82.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$26.26
$4.60
- NO
Kraken IPO in 2025?
26 shares @ 43.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$26.25
$14.89
- NO
Will Israel annex Lebanese territory before July?
25 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$25.00
$2.50
- YES
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
23 shares @ 93.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2024$22.86
$1.52
- NO
Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?
21 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$21.00
$3.78
- NO
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election?
20 shares @ 36.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 3, 2025$19.99
$12.79
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
18 shares @ 73.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$18.13
$4.77
- NO
Ripple ETF approved by July 31?
15 shares @ 49.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$15.00
$7.55
Recent activity
- REDEEMChelsea wins the Premier League?$0.00Apr 18, 20:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?$0.00Apr 18, 20:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?$0.00Apr 18, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31?$0.00Apr 9, 02:00 UTC
- REDEEMKaren Bass out as Mayor of LA before April?$5.00Apr 9, 02:00 UTC
- REDEEMTikTok sale announced before April?$10.00Apr 9, 01:59 UTC
- REDEEMRaptors vs Wizards$35.00Apr 9, 01:58 UTC
- REDEEMBulls vs Nuggets$0.00Apr 9, 00:34 UTC
- REDEEMYoon out as president of South Korea before April?$0.00Apr 9, 00:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31?$4.99Apr 9, 00:33 UTC
- REDEEMBucks vs Suns$0.00Apr 9, 00:32 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?$0.00Apr 9, 00:31 UTC
- REDEEMArrest in the Suchir Balaji case before April?$10.00Apr 9, 00:30 UTC
- REDEEM76ers vs Pelicans$95.00Apr 9, 00:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin up in Q1 2025?$41.00Apr 8, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMTimberwolves vs Pacers$105.00Apr 8, 23:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?$9.00Apr 8, 23:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?$10.00Apr 8, 23:20 UTC
- REDEEMMavericks vs Nets$0.00Apr 8, 23:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin all time high by March 31?$0.00Apr 8, 23:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $2.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 00:47 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 18, 20:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.