Burdensome-Hardhat-Conduct
0x359fe647993e59d2ddfec8eac5cac233df2a8921
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$3.94
Total PnL
$3.0K
Realised
$3.0K
Win rate
76%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Andy Manske win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
267 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$1.20
$0.20
- YES
Will Mark Lynch be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
2201 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$1.10
$-1.48
- YES
Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?
314 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.79
$-0.04
- YES
Will Tom Weiler be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
944 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.47
$-0.53
- YES
Will Luther Campbell be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
396 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.20
$-0.80
- YES
Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
241 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.12
$-0.25
- YES
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?
132 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.07
$-0.59
- YES
Will William Clouston win the Clacton by-election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Kelda Roys win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
450 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Miguel Aranda be the WI-01 Democratic nominee?
435 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.55
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$1.06Aug 13, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jim Large win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?$0.34Aug 13, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Requião Filho win the Governor of Paraná election?$0.52Aug 13, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.07Aug 13, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nick Lewis be the FL-02 Republican nominee?$0.39Aug 13, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.21Aug 13, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?$0.07Aug 13, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elly De La Cruz win the 2026 National League MVP Award?$0.45Aug 13, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.48Aug 13, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jorge Malavet be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$0.69Aug 13, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CF win the most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election?$0.50Aug 12, 20:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$0.67Aug 12, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elly De La Cruz win the 2026 National League MVP Award?$1.00Aug 12, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jim Large win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?$1.24Aug 12, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Requião Filho win the Governor of Paraná election?$1.24Aug 12, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$1.04Aug 12, 10:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?$0.87Aug 12, 10:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$0.79Aug 12, 10:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?$0.68Aug 12, 10:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$0.88Aug 12, 10:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
76% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 9, 00:43 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 14:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.