Wallet digest

active

Activity score

57/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

187

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.4K

Realised

$-32.46

Win rate

68%

85 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 187

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
150037 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026
$0.00
$-160.54
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
1036 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026
$0.00
$-21.03
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
1033 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026
$0.00
$-17.70
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
668 shares @ 41.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026
$0.00
$-276.08
YES
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
398 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-75.75
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
375 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026
$0.00
$-27.77
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
357 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026
$0.00
$-189.02
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
325 shares @ 41.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$0.00
$-134.13
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
307 shares @ 22.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026
$0.00
$-69.48
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
170 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026
$0.00
$-16.32

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs$15.00Mar 29, 20:40 UTC
TRADESELLWashington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs$18.38Mar 29, 20:01 UTC
TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$15.00Mar 29, 20:00 UTC
TRADESELLKansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves$14.91Mar 29, 19:59 UTC
TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$45.00Mar 29, 19:55 UTC
TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$20.23Mar 29, 19:53 UTC
TRADESELLAthletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays$3.25Mar 29, 19:40 UTC
TRADESELLChicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers$2.50Mar 29, 19:40 UTC
TRADESELLTexas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies$17.73Mar 29, 19:39 UTC
TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs$15.00Mar 29, 19:19 UTC
TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs$15.00Mar 29, 19:19 UTC
TRADESELLAthletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays$22.65Mar 29, 18:41 UTC
TRADEBUYAthletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays$15.00Mar 29, 18:40 UTC
TRADESELLPittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets$10.60Mar 29, 18:38 UTC
TRADEBUYChicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers$15.00Mar 29, 18:36 UTC
TRADEBUYAthletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays$15.00Mar 29, 18:32 UTC
TRADEBUYPittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets$10.00Mar 29, 18:23 UTC
TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves$10.00Mar 29, 18:20 UTC
TRADEBUYAthletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays$10.00Mar 29, 18:18 UTC
TRADEBUYTexas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies$10.00Mar 29, 18:04 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

64/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

68% win rate over 85 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

85 closed markets, 68% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry78 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk31 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 36
Avg trade size: $26.19
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Mar 18, 16:19 UTC
Last active: Mar 29, 20:40 UTC
Win rate sample: 85 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 23:52:25 UTC·src:Polymarket Data