Wallet digest

active

Activity score

48/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$10.00

Total PnL

$-10.0K

Realised

$92.60

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 71

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 8, 2026
$10.00
$5.00
YES
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?
14937 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-740.14
LGD GAMING
LoL: LGD Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5)
12096 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026
$0.00
$-315.41
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 28?
2000 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025
$0.00
$-79.00
YES
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?
1596 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-9.58
NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 29?
1400 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 29, 2025
$0.00
$-70.00
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8?
1340 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025
$0.00
$-200.93
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 28?
1200 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025
$0.00
$-204.00
NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 27?
1200 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025
$0.00
$-204.00
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 29?
1100 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 29, 2025
$0.00
$-66.00

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.00Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.81Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.17Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.44Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.70Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.24Jun 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.57Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.01Jun 8, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.10Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.64Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.41Jun 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.26Jun 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.53Jun 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.18Jun 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.95May 31, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.34May 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.98May 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.34May 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.53May 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.95May 26, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity8 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence7 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry32 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk65 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 1
Avg trade size: $0.10
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 13, 00:30 UTC
Last active: Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 2 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:11:32 UTC·src:Polymarket Data