Appropriate-Lie
0x364bcb50f20f404c65280b7bfac4e866847edb90
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-163.37
Realised
$-5.27
Win rate
31%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
10000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
895 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-12.72
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
495 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
494 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.70
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
464 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
464 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
464 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
464 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
464 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
464 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET$3.46Apr 2, 00:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET$0.04Apr 2, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET$2.96Apr 2, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$3.00Apr 2, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$2.77Apr 1, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$4.44Apr 1, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$3.00Apr 1, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 23:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$2.61Apr 1, 23:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$0.00Apr 1, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$2.83Apr 1, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$3.00Apr 1, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$2.86Apr 1, 05:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$6.02Apr 1, 05:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$2.22Apr 1, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$3.00Apr 1, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$3.00Apr 1, 05:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$3.79Apr 1, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$3.00Apr 1, 05:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $4.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 31, 16:48 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 2, 00:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.