Specific-Irony
0x367b9b8d215f33ce63c1c935e0acc21630877e9c
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$189.39
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$994.56
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Andrew Cuomo get more than 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
189 shares @ 52.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$189.39
$89.39
- YES
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
9308 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2024$0.00
$-49.99
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani win Queens in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?
8168 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-493.91
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani win Manhattan in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?
6335 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-343.08
- NO
Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election?
6332 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-199.99
- NO
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?
4256 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2024$0.00
$-149.99
- YES
Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election?
4063 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-119.00
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani win Brooklyn in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?
2503 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?
2404 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-350.00
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
1777 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?$999.00Nov 18, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?$47.97Nov 17, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$20.00Nov 17, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?$11.48Nov 17, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?$94.55Nov 17, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?$1.00Nov 17, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?$505.13Nov 17, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?$36.04Nov 17, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?$88.83Nov 17, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win Queens in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$23.56Nov 4, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win Queens in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$121.80Nov 4, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win Manhattan in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$126.00Nov 4, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win Queens in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$111.30Nov 4, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win Queens in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$37.26Nov 4, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win Manhattan in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$5.80Nov 4, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win Manhattan in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$105.86Nov 4, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win Manhattan in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$2.23Nov 4, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win Manhattan in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$0.31Nov 4, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win Manhattan in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$0.37Nov 4, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win Manhattan in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$2.22Nov 4, 18:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $190.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 22:18 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 18, 19:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.