Raw-Efficacy
0x368fb1c69029a85ce6f22cb7bf4bb66cd72da97e
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$62.46
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-59.97
Win rate
34%
117 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026?
267 shares @ 8.6¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.33
$-5.60
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
506 shares @ 4.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$17.21
$-3.01
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 11.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will EUR/USD hit 1.00 (Low) in 2026?
91 shares @ 5.7¢·now 2.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.14
$-3.04
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.27
$-0.07
- YES
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?
4500 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-25.99
- YES
Will Uzbekistan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2300 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-9.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11PM ET$15.00Jul 23, 04:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11PM ET$4.30Jul 23, 03:24 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$3.37Jul 23, 03:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$8.48Jul 23, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11PM ET$2.35Jul 23, 03:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11PM ET$2.40Jul 23, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11PM ET$2.40Jul 23, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11PM ET$2.40Jul 23, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$3.10Jul 23, 02:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$2.30Jul 23, 02:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$2.20Jul 23, 02:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$2.20Jul 23, 02:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$1.95Jul 23, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$1.90Jul 23, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$1.40Jul 23, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$0.28Jul 23, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$1.32Jul 23, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$1.65Jul 23, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$1.75Jul 23, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10PM ET$1.95Jul 23, 02:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
65/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
34% win rate over 117 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
117 closed markets, 34% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 01:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 04:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 117 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.