Crisp-Easel
0x36bec16e9d081bfb73dcecdeeaf96b9d3c2fea28
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-151.25
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
1200 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will RFK end Influenza vaccine recommendation in 2025?
202 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-36.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?
137 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?
101 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?
76 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Netanyahu out by March 31?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?
63 shares @ 39.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 17?
57 shares @ 60.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-34.31
- YES
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?
52 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-7.84
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$2.00Apr 12, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$5.00Apr 12, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$1.00Apr 12, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?$10.00Apr 12, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers$1.00Mar 20, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?$1.00Mar 20, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$1.00Mar 20, 15:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$2.74Mar 12, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$1.00Mar 11, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?$5.00Mar 1, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?$1.00Mar 1, 15:15 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?$5.56Mar 1, 15:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$1.39Mar 1, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?$1.00Mar 1, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?$1.00Feb 27, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$1.00Feb 26, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Feb 26, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Feb 26, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Feb 26, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?$10.00Feb 26, 14:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $8.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 11:04 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 12, 15:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.