Near-Execution
0x36d8661c8c4b76935793c83cb1f9df7c589f9586
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-64.25
Realised
$16.55
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 11?
337 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.55
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
290 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-0.87
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?
105 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.31
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - January 5, 10PM ET
101 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
85 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
50 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 7?
30 shares @ 71.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-21.71
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
26 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-7.53
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
23 shares @ 61.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-13.84
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?$2.83Jan 13, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 14?$2.50Jan 12, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on January 14?$3.72Jan 12, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on January 14?$3.90Jan 12, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 14?$1.10Jan 12, 18:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?$9.52Jan 12, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?$2.15Jan 12, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?$1.05Jan 12, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?$0.31Jan 12, 14:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?$0.50Jan 12, 14:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?$0.72Jan 12, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?$1.00Jan 12, 14:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?$1.44Jan 12, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?$2.75Jan 12, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?$6.25Jan 12, 06:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on January 12?$1.68Jan 12, 06:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 12?$0.00Jan 12, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 14°C on January 12?$7.32Jan 12, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 12?$8.07Jan 11, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 11?$0.26Jan 11, 17:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 11, 10:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 13, 19:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.