Conventional-Songbird
0x36f532d83d2d296c1148eb8663517f3342e3cd2e
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-9.56
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 15+ times during his next video?
2131 shares @ 73.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.6K
- YES
Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 40 and 50 million views the first week?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the Powerball jackpot hit $1 billion by August 31?
1115 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-15.75
- NO
Will MrBeast say "Bathroom" or "Toilet" during his next video?
489 shares @ 55.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-270.00
- YES
Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 30 and 40 million views the first week?
424 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2025$0.00
$-3.75
- YES
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?
367 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?
358 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Bitcoin above $116K on August 27?
263 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 27, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
251 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2024$0.00
$-95.51
- NO
Annual inflation above 2.2% in September?
198 shares @ 24.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2024$0.00
$-48.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill The Stokes Twins' next video get less than 15 million views on week 1?$587.20Sep 13, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?$1.0KSep 13, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Dollar" 15+ times during his next video?$400.00Sep 13, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Dollar" 15+ times during his next video?$400.00Sep 13, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Dollar" 15+ times during his next video?$300.00Sep 13, 16:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Curtis Sliwa get less than 10% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?$72.08Sep 12, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$739.93Sep 12, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$476.31Sep 12, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $65m?$116.85Sep 12, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?$1000.00Sep 11, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$877.42Sep 11, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$10.00Sep 10, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$500.00Sep 9, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $65m?$75.00Sep 9, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $65m?$125.00Sep 9, 00:57 UTC
- REWARD$1.70Sep 8, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Stokes Twins' next video get less than 15 million views on week 1?$45.50Sep 7, 23:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?$555.57Sep 7, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Stokes Twins' next video get less than 15 million views on week 1?$27.76Sep 7, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Dollar" 15+ times during his next video?$100.00Sep 7, 12:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $224.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 4, 00:38 UTC
- Last active
- Sep 13, 16:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.