Wallet digest

active

Activity score

48/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$63.81

Total PnL

$-37.35

Realised

$-1.14

Win rate

29 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 96

NO
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-08-22?
3 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$3.17
$1.17
BRENTFORD FC
Spread: Brentford FC (-2.5)
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$2.56
$1.56
NO
Brentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score
3 shares @ 40.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$2.50
$1.50
OVER
CS Marítimo vs. Académico de Viseu FC: O/U 3.5
2 shares @ 48.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$2.06
$1.06
NO
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-08-22?
2 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$2.02
$0.02
YES
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-08-22?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$2.00
$1.00
NO
Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2026-08-22?
3 shares @ 64.9¢·now 63.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$1.98
$-0.04
UNDER
Çorum FK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 2.5
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$1.92
$0.92
YES
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-08-22?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$1.59
$0.59
OVER
CS Marítimo vs. Académico de Viseu FC: O/U 1.5
1 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$1.47
$0.47

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2026-08-22?$1.03Aug 22, 18:35 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2026-08-22?$1.03Aug 22, 18:34 UTC
TRADEBUYWill RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-08-22?$1.02Aug 22, 18:34 UTC
REDEEMWill Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-08-22?$1.92Aug 22, 18:30 UTC
REDEEMWill Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ end in a draw?$1.05Aug 22, 18:28 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw?$1.05Aug 22, 18:05 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Como 1907 win on 2026-08-22?$1.03Aug 22, 18:02 UTC
TRADEBUYParma Calcio 1913 vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score$1.03Aug 22, 18:02 UTC
REDEEMWill Tampereen Ilves win on 2026-08-22?$1.67Aug 22, 17:59 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: New York Yankees (-1.5)$1.05Aug 22, 17:58 UTC
TRADEBUYWill PSV win on 2026-08-23?$1.05Aug 22, 17:57 UTC
REDEEMWill West Ham United FC win on 2026-08-22?$1.54Aug 22, 17:57 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Brentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?$1.01Aug 22, 17:56 UTC
TRADEBUYAl Sadd SC vs. Al Ahli Doha SC: O/U 5.5$1.02Aug 22, 17:54 UTC
TRADEBUYFC Internazionale Milano vs. AC Monza: O/U 4.5$1.06Aug 22, 17:53 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Abha Saudi Club end in a draw?$1.02Aug 22, 17:53 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: OGC Nice (-2.5)$1.01Aug 22, 17:52 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Como 1907 win on 2026-08-22?$1.03Aug 22, 17:50 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Rio Ave FC (-1.5)$1.02Aug 22, 17:49 UTC
TRADEBUYValencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score$1.03Aug 22, 17:48 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 29 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence97 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry47 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 40
Avg trade size: $1.03
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 22, 16:37 UTC
Last active: Aug 22, 18:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 29 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 18:36:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data