Selfish-Frame-Seagull
0x37338808e544aeb42968d0242b03fe8792b78810
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
194
Open notional
$0.03
Total PnL
$-152.00
Realised
$79.12
Win rate
94%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 194- YES
Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
5 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$0.03
$-0.10
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or below on July 9?
352 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 8?
191 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on July 9?
155 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 9?
125 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 9?
121 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 9?
98 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 9?
55 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.77
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 8?
50 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 8?
50 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.56
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$0.61Jul 22, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$3.75Jul 22, 22:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$2.41Jul 22, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$3.75Jul 22, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$2.31Jul 22, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$3.75Jul 22, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$2.41Jul 22, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$3.75Jul 22, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$2.21Jul 22, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$2.50Jul 22, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$1.25Jul 22, 20:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$0.24Jul 22, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$4.50Jul 22, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$3.75Jul 22, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$3.48Jul 22, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$3.75Jul 22, 13:08 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$4.75Jul 22, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$3.75Jul 22, 11:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$4.75Jul 22, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$3.75Jul 22, 10:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 05:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 22:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.