Last-Oregano
0x3748645d0b63d3a89264f58f525cec677558d0b8
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
115
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.1K
Realised
$-5.48
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 115- NO
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?
82000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-82.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
5678 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
4731 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-47.31
- YES
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
3372 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-78.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 21?
3061 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-103.38
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
2323 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-49.92
- YES
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden?
2111 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-97.14
- YES
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
1957 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
1481 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden?$99.92Jun 20, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners AND England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners$102.09Jun 17, 20:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.00Jun 13, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$77.79Jun 12, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$106.45Jun 12, 20:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$143.05Jun 12, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$105.48Jun 12, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?$74.86Jun 12, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$50.94Apr 5, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?$41.00Apr 5, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$50.61Apr 4, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$50.00Apr 4, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$59.00Apr 4, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$41.18Apr 4, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$42.00Apr 4, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$242.97Apr 4, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$50.96Apr 4, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?$41.00Apr 4, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$54.31Mar 30, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$50.00Mar 30, 18:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $108.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 16:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 17:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.