Immaterial-Secretariat
0x37525cb351f53968cb1177c1059c09bc25e69d56
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.8K
Total PnL
$-13.5K
Realised
$1.4K
Win rate
65%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Spencer Roach be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
319 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$318.50
$3.41
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
400 shares @ 50.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$286.00
$86.00
- YES
Will Bakir Izetbegović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
500 shares @ 50.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$257.50
$7.50
- NO
Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by at least 25%?
213 shares @ 90.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$212.46
$19.86
- YES
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
500 shares @ 50.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$200.00
$-50.00
- NO
Will Anwar Ibrahim cease to be Prime Minister of Malaysia by September 30, 2026?
168 shares @ 88.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$158.69
$10.42
- YES
Will the 49ers win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
250 shares @ 50.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$150.00
$25.00
- YES
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
189 shares @ 50.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$148.69
$53.98
- YES
Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?
280 shares @ 50.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$148.40
$8.40
- NO
Will Leon Goretzka join Chicago Fire?
124 shares @ 81.6¢·now 91.0¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$112.84
$11.70
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?$469.77Aug 15, 05:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nate Powell advance to the general election for WA-05?$23.38Aug 14, 22:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kyle Ursey advance to the general election for WA-05?$5.00Aug 14, 15:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ann Marie Danimus advance to the general election for WA-05?$5.00Aug 14, 15:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andrew Bartleson advance to the general election for WA-05?$106.91Aug 14, 15:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$450.00Aug 14, 11:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$30.00Aug 14, 11:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?$25.00Aug 12, 21:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jay Schroeder be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?$320.00Aug 12, 07:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shri Thanedar win the MI-13 Democratic primary by 12–16%?$57.50Aug 11, 22:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shri Thanedar win the MI-13 Democratic primary by at least 16%?$67.10Aug 11, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Philip Sarnecki win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by less than 5%?$245.00Aug 11, 17:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Philip Sarnecki win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by 5–10%?$181.52Aug 11, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bradley Barcola join Liverpool?$58.00Aug 11, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Philip Sarnecki win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by at least 10%?$196.44Aug 11, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bradley Barcola join Liverpool?$0.28Aug 11, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bradley Barcola join Liverpool?$8.95Aug 11, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bradley Barcola join Liverpool?$2.58Aug 11, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bruno Fernandes join Bayern Munich?$19.94Aug 8, 21:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on August 7?$117.00Aug 7, 16:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
84/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
55 closed markets, 65% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $56.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 5, 13:46 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 05:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.