Required-Portrait
0x37af17eeea7a85bad51f46856430f68aeb172f21
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$-2.72
Realised
$39.60
Win rate
63%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
2830 shares @ 12.2¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$268.86
$-77.82
- YES
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?
130 shares @ 86.5¢·now 98.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$128.12
$15.69
- NO
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?
121 shares @ 89.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$120.64
$11.54
- NO
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?
116 shares @ 78.5¢·now 92.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$106.94
$15.63
- NO
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?
82 shares @ 84.7¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$80.86
$11.47
- NO
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?
95 shares @ 85.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$74.50
$-6.62
- NO
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?
90 shares @ 81.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$73.34
$0.44
- YES
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?
148 shares @ 34.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$66.04
$15.52
- NO
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?
71 shares @ 88.9¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$65.31
$2.21
- YES
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?
156 shares @ 14.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$60.06
$38.22
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$9.50Jul 13, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?$10.96Jul 13, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?$8.04Jul 13, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?$9.50Jul 13, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?$108.59Jul 13, 18:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?$6.91Jul 13, 18:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?$6.30Jul 13, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?$0.08Jul 13, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?$17.00Jul 13, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?$3.95Jul 13, 01:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026?$20.60Jul 12, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?$9.00Jul 12, 09:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$27.35Jul 12, 09:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Svitle by September 30?$6.70Jul 12, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?$4.00Jul 12, 09:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?$22.50Jul 12, 09:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?$20.44Jul 11, 21:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $15.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 10:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.