Wallet digest

active

Activity score

40/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-257.63

Realised

$-19.67

Win rate

25%

16 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 66

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
200 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
67 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
42 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2PM ET
39 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
36 shares @ 41.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
34 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-0.68
YES
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?
34 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$1.31Jul 9, 22:52 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$2.13Jul 9, 22:51 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$12.67Jul 9, 22:49 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$10.46Jul 9, 22:49 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$7.30Jul 9, 22:48 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$10.27Jul 9, 22:48 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$15.31Jul 9, 22:48 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$10.29Jul 9, 22:47 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$10.26Jul 9, 22:47 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$11.19Jul 9, 22:46 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$10.34Jul 9, 22:44 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$12.06Jul 9, 22:43 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$10.13Jul 9, 22:42 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$4.56Jul 9, 22:42 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$10.44Jul 9, 22:41 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$11.17Jul 9, 22:37 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$5.17Jul 9, 22:36 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$2.09Jul 9, 22:35 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$40.72Jul 9, 22:34 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$10.23Jul 9, 22:33 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

41/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

25% win rate over 16 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity73 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence53 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry45 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk38 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 50
Avg trade size: $7.77
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 29, 01:39 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 22:52 UTC
Win rate sample: 16 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:48:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data