Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

130

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-741.06

Realised

$-126.97

Win rate

38 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 130

DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
501 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026
$0.00
$-5.01
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
177 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
168 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026
$0.00
$-5.07
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - July 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
155 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-1.55
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET
125 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - July 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
123 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
119 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-16.64

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$48.67Jul 26, 22:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$48.24Jul 26, 22:54 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$6.28Jul 26, 21:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$5.22Jul 26, 21:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$0.51Jul 26, 21:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$5.37Jul 26, 21:25 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$5.50Jul 26, 13:01 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$7.72Jul 26, 13:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$5.03Jul 26, 06:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$5.17Jul 26, 06:37 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$7.46Jul 24, 20:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$5.17Jul 24, 20:02 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$7.04Jul 24, 19:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$5.15Jul 24, 19:37 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$6.49Jul 24, 19:16 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$6.46Jul 24, 19:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$5.13Jul 24, 19:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$5.13Jul 24, 19:08 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$5.21Jul 23, 10:02 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$7.35Jul 23, 09:53 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

8% win rate over 38 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

38 closed markets, 8% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry54 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 31
Avg trade size: $6.42
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 22, 00:35 UTC
Last active: Jul 26, 22:56 UTC
Win rate sample: 38 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:37:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data