Musty-Lag
0x3879b2a3c6f45ab807a8c92835a085e3b472d8c3
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.92
Total PnL
$-392.04
Realised
$87.51
Win rate
100%
56 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.00
$-1.00
- YES
Trump signs housing bill by end of July?
1844 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.92
$-0.92
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in May 2026?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$0.02Jul 30, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$0.00Jul 30, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$0.02Jul 30, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$0.00Jul 30, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$0.00Jul 30, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$0.00Jul 30, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$0.02Jul 30, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$0.02Jul 30, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$0.02Jul 30, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? $0.02Jul 30, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? $0.01Jul 30, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? $0.03Jul 30, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$0.01Jul 30, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$0.01Jul 30, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.08Jul 30, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$0.00Jul 30, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$0.02Jul 30, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$0.20Jul 30, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$0.02Jul 30, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$0.00Jul 30, 17:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 56 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
56 closed markets, 100% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 17:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 17:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 56 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.