Unsteady-Convert
0x389a21fa2e2445c7f8b915b45b9b009bd641397d
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$3.3K
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$-404.33
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
988 shares @ 70.3¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$795.30
$101.10
- NO
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
1109 shares @ 70.3¢·now 66.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$731.77
$-48.24
- NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
1241 shares @ 72.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$502.72
$-390.60
- NO
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
779 shares @ 45.9¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$307.80
$-50.20
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
553 shares @ 28.9¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$242.90
$83.15
- YES
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
559 shares @ 35.8¢·now 37.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$206.99
$6.99
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
244 shares @ 39.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$125.45
$30.45
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 15 above $210?
271 shares @ 46.1¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$105.74
$-19.26
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
356 shares @ 22.5¢·now 18.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$66.77
$-13.23
- NO
Will Trump say "Russia" during June 24 Rally?
122 shares @ 40.9¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$40.30
$-9.70
Recent activity
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$95.00Jun 18, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$10.00Jun 18, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$40.00Jun 18, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?$10.00Jun 18, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? $10.00Jun 18, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$100.00Jun 18, 17:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$271.03Jun 18, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Venezuela" during June 24 Rally?$25.28Jun 18, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Arch" or "Ballroom" during June 24 Rally?$25.44Jun 18, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Russia" during June 24 Rally?$51.18Jun 18, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during June 24 Rally?$50.67Jun 18, 17:17 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?$134.80Jun 18, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$80.00Jun 17, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?$110.00Jun 17, 23:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$111.49Jun 17, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?$85.00Jun 17, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$88.26Jun 17, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?$18.00Jun 17, 23:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?$18.07Jun 17, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$3.00Jun 17, 21:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $77.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 13:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 18:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.