0x38ad28f0a3fbb6624e9959eafa3804381055b263
0x38ad28f0a3fbb6624e9959eafa3804381055b263
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-248.27
Realised
$-27.49
Win rate
20%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 5?
7000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 7?
3500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 5?
3500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 8?
3500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 6?
106 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-4.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 28?
96 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 8?
80 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 46°F or higher on March 9?
79 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 5?
65 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-3.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 10?
63 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 28?$3.50Mar 28, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 28?$3.00Mar 28, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 28?$3.00Mar 28, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 21?$1.38Mar 20, 21:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 19?$9.55Mar 20, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 20?$3.50Mar 19, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 18?$1.78Mar 18, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 18?$2.50Mar 16, 22:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 17?$2.86Mar 16, 22:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 17?$2.91Mar 16, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 18?$1.00Mar 16, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 17?$2.76Mar 16, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 17?$2.88Mar 16, 21:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 16?$5.04Mar 16, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 17?$3.50Mar 16, 19:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 17?$1.35Mar 16, 14:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 17?$1.38Mar 16, 14:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 20-21°F on March 17?$1.97Mar 16, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 17?$1.50Mar 16, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 17?$1.50Mar 16, 14:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $2.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 18:02 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 28, 22:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.