Delicious-Variability
0x38c7187becad96aa0367dc62aaec65b08f62806e
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$469.52
Total PnL
$-710.49
Realised
$-8.77
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
240 shares @ 50.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$145.20
$25.20
- YES
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
324 shares @ 37.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$97.30
$-22.70
- YES
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
234 shares @ 34.2¢·now 27.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$63.05
$-16.84
- YES
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
120 shares @ 32.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$25.80
$-12.60
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
180 shares @ 16.6¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$22.50
$-7.30
- YES
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches?
118 shares @ 23.8¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$17.06
$-11.00
- YES
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?
240 shares @ 25.8¢·now 6.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.72
$-46.22
- YES
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?
270 shares @ 3.7¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$13.38
$3.38
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
194 shares @ 10.3¢·now 6.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$13.30
$-6.70
- YES
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?
555 shares @ 13.5¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.65
$-63.29
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$5.57Jul 5, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- REWARD$55.32Jul 5, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 6?$7.13Jul 4, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?$25.70Jul 4, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?$25.80Jul 4, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?$10.44Jul 4, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?$1.29Jul 4, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?$3.61Jul 4, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.82Jul 4, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$91.63Jul 4, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?$5.13Jul 4, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: France (-1.5) AND Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Score$14.99Jul 4, 21:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$17.47Jul 4, 18:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$5.00Jul 4, 18:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$10.00Jul 4, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$4.00Jul 4, 17:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$14.84Jul 4, 17:43 UTC
- REDEEMWimbledon WTA: Amanda Anisimova vs Madison Keys AND Wimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Maria Sakkari$34.59Jul 4, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$4.85Jul 4, 17:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $11.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 16:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.