Gaseous-Believer
0x38e2b7690e52eed88b2185d948c8a061a6df0743
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$9.34
Total PnL
$-284.52
Realised
$-8.84
Win rate
0%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
7 shares @ 84.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$7.32
$1.15
- NO
Will Bob Rommel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
1 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Spencer Roach be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
1 shares @ 85.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
1 shares @ 49.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NUGGETS
Nuggets vs. Clippers
365 shares @ 35.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-131.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12?
175 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
119 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$15.00Aug 19, 03:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$2.01Aug 19, 03:07 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$1.45Jun 18, 00:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$2.71Jun 14, 19:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12?$30.00Jun 12, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12?$3.20Jun 11, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12?$12.80Jun 11, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$3.45Jun 10, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.05Jun 10, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET$5.16Jun 10, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$5.14Jun 10, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12?$103.01Jun 10, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$1.05Jun 10, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$1.50Jun 10, 02:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$2.86Jun 10, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.07Jun 10, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.07Jun 10, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.05Jun 10, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.05Jun 10, 02:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9?$5.68Jun 9, 18:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $9.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 09:54 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 03:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.