Alert-Counter
0x38e2bf6191e074a7e7fd671b93ed6eeaaf8dae3c
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
172
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-400.88
Realised
$7.13
Win rate
86%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 172- YES
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 5?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
583 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
151 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14?
116 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be less than 150k?
112 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
98 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.79
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
93 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$0.00Jun 21, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$1.06Jun 21, 21:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.25Jun 21, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.01Jun 21, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.04Jun 21, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$1.04Jun 21, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$1.05Jun 21, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$1.06Jun 21, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$2.17Jun 21, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.04Jun 21, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$1.04Jun 21, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.00Jun 21, 21:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$2.79Jun 20, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$1.05Jun 20, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?$1.00Jun 20, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$0.00Jun 20, 05:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$1.20Jun 20, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$1.01Jun 20, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$2.01Jun 20, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$1.04Jun 20, 05:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 03:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 21, 22:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.