0x38e97e65f552fb212cd8d113f913fadd3a021c7c
0x38e97e65f552fb212cd8d113f913fadd3a021c7c
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
176
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-126.17
Realised
$65.30
Win rate
59%
79 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 176- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 26?
708 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.70
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 26?
674 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.62
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 29?
643 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 6?
546 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.18
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 30?
502 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on May 5?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 28?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 29?
457 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.59
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 27?
437 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-0.89
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 28?
437 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.87
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 8?$2.53May 8, 18:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on May 8?$0.25May 8, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 8?$0.04May 8, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 8?$0.04May 8, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 8?$0.20May 8, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on May 8?$0.06May 8, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on May 8?$2.00May 8, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 8?$0.10May 8, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May 8?$0.36May 8, 00:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May 8?$0.37May 8, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May 8?$1.25May 8, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May 8?$0.39May 7, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 8?$0.53May 7, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 8?$0.20May 7, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on May 8?$0.01May 7, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 8?$3.00May 7, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 8?$2.00May 7, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 8?$1.00May 7, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 8?$2.32May 7, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 8?$2.00May 7, 17:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 79 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 21/100.
79 closed markets, 59% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $0.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 7, 04:48 UTC
- Last active
- May 8, 18:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 79 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.