Envious-Evidence
0x38f577203fe15b3626bd78229e887a1619175481
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
114
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-497.05
Realised
$-12.88
Win rate
58%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 114- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 22?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 19?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24?
1102 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?
841 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24?
524 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24?
443 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?
387 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?
386 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24?
371 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 22?
347 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$10.98May 29, 21:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$9.61May 29, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$51.62May 29, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$53.00May 29, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$40.96May 29, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$2.14May 29, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?$2.14May 29, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?$2.14May 29, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?$2.13May 29, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$47.36May 29, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$45.91May 29, 20:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$47.99May 29, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$41.51May 29, 20:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$4.87May 29, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$5.13May 29, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$2.58May 29, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$5.20May 29, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$6.49May 29, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$5.21May 29, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on May 30?$43.07May 29, 19:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $15.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 22:00 UTC
- Last active
- May 29, 21:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.