Vacant-Wonder-Wrap
0x3908431bcc2aba3fae8dd2756dab9b63ff10d10e
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$6.15
Total PnL
$-130.48
Realised
$365.17
Win rate
8%
187 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,137,000 on September 30?
10 shares @ 9.9¢·now 26.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.63
$1.63
- YES
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $325,000 and $330,000 on September 30?
9 shares @ 22.3¢·now 15.2¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.36
$-0.64
- YES
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 13.7¢·now 13.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
- YES
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,242,000 and $1,264,000 on September 30?
8 shares @ 64.1¢·now 5.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.46
$-4.54
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?
66 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.40
$-1.60
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
6 shares @ 32.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.17
$-1.67
- YES
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
83 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.12
$-0.88
- YES
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,284,000 on September 30?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.01
$-0.98
- NO
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?$0.27Jul 28, 02:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.30Jul 28, 02:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?$0.33Jul 28, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?$0.29Jul 28, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30?$0.15Jul 28, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.12Jul 28, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,201,000 and $1,216,000 on September 30?$0.17Jul 28, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?$0.44Jul 28, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?$0.45Jul 28, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$0.53Jul 28, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$0.60Jul 28, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30?$0.38Jul 28, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$0.63Jul 28, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?$0.63Jul 28, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$0.64Jul 28, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?$0.64Jul 28, 02:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Utah Royals FC win on 2026-07-05?$0.16Jul 28, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$0.33Jul 28, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMPortugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 5.5 Corners$0.34Jul 28, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Fan" 5+ times during the Portugal vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?$0.35Jul 28, 02:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 187 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
187 closed markets, 8% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $0.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 02:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 02:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 187 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.