Flawless-Swanling
0x3957e1d205bac608a6c984050940d4b0bb8ce542
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
121
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-170.20
Win rate
57%
47 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 121- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 12?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 12, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 5?
349 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-1.29
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
199 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
196 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-66.74
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
186 shares @ 26.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-50.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
161 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
158 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025$0.00
$-134.57
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
135 shares @ 74.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
114 shares @ 48.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-55.35
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
111 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6?$163.88Jan 6, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6?$100.00Jan 6, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6?$73.13Jan 6, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6?$50.00Jan 6, 10:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$26.52Jan 6, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$20.00Jan 6, 08:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$21.43Jan 6, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$20.00Jan 6, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$16.13Jan 6, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$10.00Jan 6, 08:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$28.44Jan 6, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$20.00Jan 6, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$4.06Jan 6, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$3.34Jan 6, 07:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6?$71.43Jan 6, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6?$100.00Jan 5, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET$11.49Jan 5, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET$10.00Jan 5, 19:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 5?$443.02Jan 5, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 5?$302.55Jan 5, 15:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 47 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
47 closed markets, 57% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $86.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 5, 10:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 6, 14:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 47 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.