Fragrant-Export
0x395944a913514136e0996508aa8542bab646f8fa
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$39.06
Total PnL
$-806.95
Realised
$-61.38
Win rate
18%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
38 shares @ 50.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$37.98
$18.64
- NO
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
30 shares @ 31.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.70
$-8.60
- YES
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?
17 shares @ 32.4¢·now 2.1¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.37
$-5.25
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
1631 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-99.97
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
605 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-63.59
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
564 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-72.20
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
365 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-76.61
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
331 shares @ 19.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-64.12
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
200 shares @ 25.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-50.41
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
186 shares @ 30.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-57.39
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$15.00Aug 1, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$24.00Jul 24, 12:33 UTC
- REDEEMPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$10.99Jul 19, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 15?$11.00Jul 16, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?$14.00Jul 10, 05:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?$12.00Jul 7, 21:07 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$20.00Jul 7, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 15?$9.46Jul 6, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$9.60Jul 6, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?$2.20Jul 6, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?$2.29Jul 5, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Little Brother" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?$7.19Jul 5, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?$2.45Jul 5, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?$4.65Jul 5, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?$3.64Jul 4, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?$2.47Jul 4, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$0.77Jul 4, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?$22.00Jul 2, 18:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$22.00Jul 1, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?$20.00Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 03:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 06:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.