Prime-Update
0x395c354bf541b3d71d38130e380a415cb942ee8d
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-7.5K
Realised
$-3.9K
Win rate
0%
71 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1600 shares @ 50.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.6K
$791.20
- YES
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1600 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.80
$-791.19
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
25 shares @ 49.6¢·now 18.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.54
$-7.88
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
27 shares @ 49.8¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.42
$-10.04
- YES
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
25 shares @ 50.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$2.13
$-10.38
- YES
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?
25 shares @ 50.0¢·now 7.3¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$1.84
$-10.67
- YES
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?
25 shares @ 50.0¢·now 6.7¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$1.66
$-10.84
- YES
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
126 shares @ 50.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.57
$-61.34
- YES
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?
25 shares @ 50.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$0.89
$-11.62
- YES
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
141 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.35
$-70.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Centre Party (C) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$0.01Aug 21, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?$0.00Aug 21, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bruce Walden advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$0.01Aug 21, 03:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Aug 21, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election?$0.01Aug 20, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?$0.01Aug 20, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bo Bichette lead the MLB in doubles for the 2026 regular season?$0.00Aug 20, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?$0.01Aug 20, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?$0.01Aug 20, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Series?$0.01Aug 20, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?$0.01Aug 20, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series?$0.01Aug 20, 01:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Aug 20, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Daryl Parks win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$0.01Aug 19, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next?$0.01Aug 19, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next?$0.01Aug 19, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Aguilar Jr. win the CA-14 special election?$0.01Aug 19, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rakhi Israni Singh win the CA-14 special election?$0.01Aug 19, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matt Ortega win the CA-14 special election?$0.01Aug 19, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Carin Elam win the CA-14 special election?$0.01Aug 19, 03:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 71 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
71 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $0.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 20:39 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 09:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 71 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.