0x397684fe4d16742fa8d3096660e09460aa36c189
0x397684fe4d16742fa8d3096660e09460aa36c189
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$10.00
Total PnL
$-15.99
Realised
$-0.71
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- UNDER
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$10.00
$9.00
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
333 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?
333 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Military action against Iran ends on March 21, 2026?
182 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?
167 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
126 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?
90 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026?
85 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?$1.00Mar 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Kills Over/Under 44.5 in Game 1?$1.00Mar 22, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.6m & 14.8m square kilometers?$0.28Mar 22, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hottest" during Memphis Roundtable?$1.00Mar 22, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYPeople's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?$1.00Mar 22, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?$0.89Mar 22, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?$1.00Mar 22, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5$1.00Mar 22, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?$1.00Mar 22, 12:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "What's Up" this week? (March 22)$0.98Mar 22, 08:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.53Mar 22, 08:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?$0.90Mar 22, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs GAMEHARMONY (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #3 Group A$1.00Mar 22, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.6m & 14.8m square kilometers?$1.00Mar 22, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in March?$1.00Mar 22, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs GAMEHARMONY (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #3 Group A$1.00Mar 22, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "What's Up" this week? (March 22)$1.00Mar 21, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.00Mar 21, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$1.00Mar 20, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilitary action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026?$1.00Mar 20, 16:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 19, 11:08 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 23, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.