Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.8K

Realised

$-693.68

Win rate

61 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 80

YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
3333 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
NO
Will Philadelphia 76ers advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?
2614 shares @ 13.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-351.12
YES
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
2500 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on March 9?
104 shares @ 96.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10AM ET
100 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-28.04
LEHIGH MOUNTAIN HAWKS
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers
91 shares @ 56.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$0.00
$-51.95
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2PM ET
88 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026
$0.00
$-36.24
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8PM ET
79 shares @ 35.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-28.04
YES
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?
78 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-9.54
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET
72 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-28.04

Recent activity

REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$0.00Aug 12, 01:46 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$11.87Aug 12, 01:41 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$0.00Aug 12, 01:02 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$11.79Aug 12, 00:50 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$12.29Aug 12, 00:46 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$11.72Aug 12, 00:40 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$15.86Aug 12, 00:16 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$14.86Aug 12, 00:16 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$11.85Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$11.90Aug 12, 00:01 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$15.51Aug 11, 14:16 UTC
REDEEMHYPE Up or Down - August 11, 9AM ET$12.98Aug 11, 14:12 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$11.88Aug 11, 14:00 UTC
TRADEBUYHYPE Up or Down - August 11, 9AM ET$11.76Aug 11, 13:50 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$12.84Aug 11, 13:46 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$16.54Aug 11, 13:46 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$11.75Aug 11, 13:40 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$0.00Aug 11, 13:33 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$11.92Aug 11, 13:30 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$11.78Aug 11, 13:20 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

64/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

2% win rate over 61 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

61 closed markets, 2% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity64 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry74 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk29 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 25
Avg trade size: $11.86
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 7, 17:07 UTC
Last active: Aug 12, 01:46 UTC
Win rate sample: 61 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:39:37 UTC·src:Polymarket Data