Probable-Poisoning
0x398adec429af9ca0496217314c35b04c1b74fd30
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
147
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-835.87
Realised
$43.95
Win rate
94%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 147- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
68 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-9.72
- UP
XRP Up or Down - November 20, 3AM ET
31 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$0.00
$-13.50
- UP
XRP Up or Down - November 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
31 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-21.30
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
31 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-25.20
- UP
XRP Up or Down - November 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
30 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-21.60
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
30 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-21.90
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2025$0.00
$-4.94
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
26 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-20.75
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - November 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
25 shares @ 88.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-22.50
- UP
XRP Up or Down - November 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
25 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-14.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$6.00Nov 25, 16:35 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - November 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$6.12Nov 25, 16:35 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$6.77Nov 25, 16:35 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$5.99Nov 25, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - November 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$6.00Nov 25, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$6.00Nov 25, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - November 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$6.00Nov 25, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - November 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$1.65Nov 25, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - November 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$1.17Nov 25, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - November 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$2.82Nov 25, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$2.46Nov 25, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$3.54Nov 25, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - November 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$3.60Nov 25, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - November 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$3.18Nov 25, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - November 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$3.18Nov 25, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$6.00Nov 25, 16:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$6.00Nov 25, 16:07 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - November 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$6.00Nov 25, 16:07 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - November 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$6.00Nov 25, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - November 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$0.33Nov 25, 16:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $2.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 25, 15:30 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 25, 16:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.