Quiet-Nose
0x3994fba9006eb127cb28e8d2a192d81e17a4ff63
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
163
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.1K
Realised
$-202.83
Win rate
48%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 163- YES
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?
4342 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
2960 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-156.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
800 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
657 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-23.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
600 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
527 shares @ 36.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-193.12
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
417 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
400 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-171.97
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$51.95Jul 23, 10:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$140.81Jul 23, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$98.50Jul 23, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Dandelions vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B$39.38Jul 23, 09:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5AM ET$42.10Jul 23, 09:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$1.42Jul 23, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5AM ET$104.65Jul 23, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$16.88Jul 23, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$200.37Jul 23, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Dandelions vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B$1.35Jul 23, 08:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$17.56Jul 23, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$25.65Jul 23, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$103.64Jul 23, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$19.03Jul 23, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$65.65Jul 23, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$62.44Jul 23, 07:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$200.37Jul 23, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$126.34Jul 23, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$60.50Jul 23, 05:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12AM ET$187.33Jul 23, 05:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
48% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $55.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 21:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 10:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.