Simplistic-Excess
0x39d6fb370cd4bf48a08d391d3c63dd5f52ee62a5
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$26.35
Total PnL
$-521.24
Realised
$-212.17
Win rate
0%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 29?
11 shares @ 75.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$10.87
$2.63
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 29?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$5.32
$0.32
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 29?
5 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$5.10
$0.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on April 29?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$5.06
$0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 19?
55 shares @ 81.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-44.80
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 13?
40 shares @ 63.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-25.15
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 7?
38 shares @ 72.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-27.33
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 8?
21 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on April 23?
20 shares @ 73.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-15.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 28?
19 shares @ 76.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-14.69
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on April 28?$4.34Apr 29, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 29?$5.10Apr 29, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 29?$10.11Apr 29, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 28?$11.71Apr 29, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on April 28?$20.47Apr 29, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29?$25.48Apr 29, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 29?$73.92Apr 29, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 28?$5.06Apr 29, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on April 28?$5.08Apr 29, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 28?$5.53Apr 29, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 28?$5.30Apr 28, 16:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 27?$9.01Apr 28, 16:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 28?$10.13Apr 28, 16:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 27?$10.17Apr 28, 16:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 29?$10.19Apr 28, 16:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 28?$15.31Apr 28, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 29?$3.27Apr 28, 10:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 28?$0.00Apr 28, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 27?$0.00Apr 28, 10:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 27?$0.00Apr 28, 10:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $4.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 28, 01:56 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 29, 11:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.