Elderly-Soldier
0x39fb644e883aa4f9742e478d4c863e5bea272c0c
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$25.92
Total PnL
$-622.49
Realised
$-21.15
Win rate
3%
196 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 23?
25 shares @ 20.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$24.91
$19.91
- YES
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?
16 shares @ 13.0¢·now 4.2¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$0.66
$-1.42
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?
23 shares @ 9.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.24
$-1.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on August 24?
200 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 24, 2026$0.10
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 2?
711 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-13.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 2?
408 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on August 1?
346 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on July 31?
300 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 42°C on August 1?
211 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 31?
150 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.58
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23?$6.00Aug 23, 17:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 23?$6.00Aug 23, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on August 23?$7.00Aug 23, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AS Monaco FC win on 2026-08-23?$3.19Aug 23, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or higher on August 23?$2.32Aug 23, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 24?$1.30Aug 23, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23?$3.08Aug 23, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 23?$4.43Aug 23, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-08-23?$3.49Aug 23, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 23?$5.29Aug 23, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 23?$5.20Aug 23, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on August 23?$5.29Aug 23, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWest Bromwich Albion FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5$3.19Aug 23, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or higher on August 23?$2.17Aug 23, 10:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on August 22?$6.00Aug 23, 08:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 23?$5.99Aug 23, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 23?$5.37Aug 23, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 23?$5.37Aug 23, 06:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on August 22?$7.00Aug 23, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on August 22?$6.00Aug 23, 06:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 196 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
196 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $3.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 22, 18:33 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 17:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 196 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.