0x3a0e743c50c4eaf0964a84f994d23878ded266f5
0x3a0e743c50c4eaf0964a84f994d23878ded266f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
137
Open notional
$111.79
Total PnL
$-164.10
Realised
$14.10
Win rate
88%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 137- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 5?
11 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$11.29
$0.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 45°C or higher on July 5?
11 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$11.18
$-0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on July 5?
11 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$11.18
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on July 5?
11 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$11.18
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on July 5?
11 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$11.18
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 44°C on July 5?
11 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$11.17
$-0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 5?
11 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$11.11
$0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 5?
11 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$11.00
$0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 5?
11 shares @ 66.3¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$9.78
$2.28
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 5?
11 shares @ 78.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$7.65
$-1.19
Recent activity
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?$6.99Jul 4, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on July 6?$6.99Jul 4, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 6?$4.63Jul 4, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 6?$6.87Jul 4, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 6?$6.98Jul 4, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 6?$6.13Jul 4, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 6?$6.98Jul 4, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 6?$6.97Jul 4, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 6?$6.47Jul 4, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 6?$5.25Jul 4, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 6?$5.72Jul 4, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 6?$6.98Jul 4, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 5?$6.30Jul 3, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on July 5?$11.17Jul 3, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 5?$8.94Jul 3, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on July 5?$11.17Jul 3, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on July 5?$11.17Jul 3, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 5?$11.09Jul 3, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 5?$11.09Jul 3, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 5?$7.63Jul 3, 04:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $8.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 03:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 04:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.