Whimsical-Cayenne
0x3a1fab8eaa38b1347d4b9e298e232bb4b0894877
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$864.47
Total PnL
$-5.8K
Realised
$-3.52
Win rate
20%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 10?
194 shares @ 34.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$193.91
$126.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 10?
156 shares @ 35.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$155.89
$100.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 11?
135 shares @ 43.8¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$67.59
$8.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 11?
125 shares @ 41.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$61.94
$10.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 11?
103 shares @ 48.6¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$55.37
$5.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 11?
116 shares @ 32.5¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$53.76
$16.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 11?
134 shares @ 30.7¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$48.74
$7.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 11?
164 shares @ 37.3¢·now 26.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$42.69
$-18.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 11?
125 shares @ 32.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$33.15
$-6.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 11?
116 shares @ 36.7¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$30.64
$-11.77
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 12?$15.05Jul 11, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 12?$8.70Jul 11, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 12?$32.45Jul 11, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C or higher on July 12?$15.18Jul 11, 00:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 10?$36.97Jul 11, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 10?$46.27Jul 11, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 10?$93.25Jul 11, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 10?$33.73Jul 11, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 10?$34.10Jul 11, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 10?$90.27Jul 10, 21:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 10?$34.83Jul 10, 21:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 10?$55.29Jul 10, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 11?$1.07Jul 10, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 11?$63.10Jul 10, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 11?$56.57Jul 10, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 11?$19.67Jul 10, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 11?$0.95Jul 10, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 11?$8.68Jul 10, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 11?$38.01Jul 10, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 11?$28.31Jul 10, 06:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
60 closed markets, 20% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $16.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 10:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 00:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.