Vapid-Cast
0x3a23aefb558720bfa42626c60b08c47b96e84967
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-90.55
Realised
$-2.02
Win rate
0%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 16?
262 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 16?
262 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.20
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 17?
88 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on May 17?
53 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 18?
35 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16?
33 shares @ 22.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-7.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 16?
31 shares @ 23.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-7.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 16?
21 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 19?$1.69May 22, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on May 19?$1.16May 22, 14:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on May 19?$1.20May 22, 14:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on May 19?$4.20May 22, 14:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on May 19?$1.19May 22, 14:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 19?$2.10May 22, 14:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 18?$2.57May 21, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 17?$2.91May 21, 09:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 17?$5.00May 21, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on May 20?$1.64May 21, 01:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 17?$4.89May 21, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18?$1.64May 20, 23:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18?$3.50May 20, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on May 20?$1.07May 18, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on May 19?$1.05May 17, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 17?$4.37May 17, 22:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 17?$1.19May 17, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 20?$1.08May 17, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 19?$1.08May 17, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on May 17?$1.05May 17, 16:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.
36 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $0.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 10:45 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 14:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.