Humiliating-Sponge
0x3a2eab338cadacf1465ec771a439811b986964a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.21
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$130.32
Win rate
100%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
50 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.15
$-1.57
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
120 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.06
$-4.08
- YES
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
120 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.06
$-4.08
- YES
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
120 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.06
$-4.08
- YES
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
120 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.06
$-4.08
- YES
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
120 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.06
$-4.08
- YES
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
110 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.05
$-4.34
- YES
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
110 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.05
$-4.34
- YES
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
110 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.05
$-4.34
- YES
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
110 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.05
$-4.34
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on July 21?$7.00Jul 22, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?$2.20Jul 22, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 20?$2.57Jul 21, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLVisa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5%-9.5%?$0.78Jul 21, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?$0.78Jul 21, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 230-239 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?$0.60Jul 21, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$0.80Jul 21, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jimmy Gomez win the CA-34 House seat?$0.81Jul 21, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$0.87Jul 21, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.16Jul 21, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.77Jul 21, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron's next contract average $10M-$15M per year?$1.40Jul 21, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 22?$1.74Jul 21, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 22?$1.92Jul 21, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?$2.12Jul 21, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 21?$2.62Jul 21, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 20?$4.18Jul 21, 09:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?$1.80Jul 21, 06:25 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$9.09Jul 21, 00:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.66Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $10.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 16:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 08:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.