Stable-Patch
0x3a3099e8714178666a19bfd7e7525250426f99ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$19.07
Total PnL
$-105.75
Realised
$55.99
Win rate
83%
83 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.38
$0.38
- NO
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
336 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$1.18
$0.17
- YES
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 10, 2026$1.17
$0.17
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.83
$-0.17
- YES
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.83
$-0.17
- YES
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?$1.00Jul 29, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?$1.00Jul 29, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in August?$1.00Jul 29, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.01Jul 29, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.40 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in July?$0.35Jul 29, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in July?$0.65Jul 29, 04:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?$1.27Jul 29, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$1.00Jul 29, 04:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?$1.00Jul 29, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Left win the third most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$0.03Jul 29, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Left win the third most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$0.03Jul 29, 01:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.68Jul 29, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.58Jul 28, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win Washtenaw County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$0.65Jul 28, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Left win the third most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?$0.26Jul 28, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$1.00Jul 28, 21:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$1.38Jul 28, 20:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?$1.00Jul 28, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$0.38Jul 28, 19:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 83 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
83 closed markets, 83% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 13:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 07:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 83 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.