Reasonable-Obedience
0x3a8024d0e480ceb3f166c9514a1653a8a1f22afd
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
173
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$155.54
Win rate
67%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 173- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
3486 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-75.79
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
2225 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-251.05
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET
1784 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
1229 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-84.96
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
1081 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-68.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
1078 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-114.54
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
1026 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-65.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
1006 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-68.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
987 shares @ 12.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-125.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
772 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-74.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$0.00Jul 29, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$5.23Jul 29, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$5.23Jul 29, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$26.04Jul 29, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$26.24Jul 29, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$26.12Jul 29, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$5.34Jul 29, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$5.33Jul 29, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$5.33Jul 29, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$10.62Jul 29, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$10.59Jul 29, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$10.56Jul 29, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$10.55Jul 29, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$10.55Jul 29, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$10.48Jul 29, 01:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$22.78Jul 29, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$10.43Jul 29, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$5.18Jul 29, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$5.34Jul 29, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$5.31Jul 29, 01:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $17.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 00:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.