Profuse-Campaigning
0x3a91442a725581d4147d3a34bde3dceb41733428
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$641.52
Total PnL
$-142.06
Realised
$8.35
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?
100 shares @ 71.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Sep 3, 2026$62.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will PI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?
100 shares @ 63.2¢·now 58.0¢·exp Sep 23, 2026$58.00
$-5.20
- NO
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?
50 shares @ 42.0¢·now 97.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$48.90
$27.90
- YES
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?
50 shares @ 61.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$44.26
$13.75
- NO
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?
60 shares @ 69.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$41.10
$-0.30
- YES
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?
50 shares @ 53.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$35.50
$9.00
- NO
Will Jaques Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?
100 shares @ 36.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$31.50
$-4.50
- NO
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 66.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.75
$-4.25
- NO
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?
39 shares @ 79.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.48
$-3.10
- YES
Will "Pluribus" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?
30 shares @ 64.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$18.33
$-0.74
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?$26.02Aug 20, 04:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?$15.00Aug 20, 04:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?$18.98Aug 20, 04:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Capitão Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?$56.00Aug 20, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Capitão Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?$54.00Aug 20, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?$58.00Aug 20, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jaques Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?$36.00Aug 20, 02:06 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.17Aug 20, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$19.67Aug 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?$63.20Aug 19, 22:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?$1.66Aug 19, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?$71.00Aug 19, 19:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?$0.00Aug 19, 17:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?$35.20Aug 19, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?$61.00Aug 19, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?$61.00Aug 19, 01:40 UTC
- REWARD$9.52Aug 19, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill T1 Win KeSPA Cup 2026?$20.00Aug 18, 08:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Emerson Nolasco Delgado win the next Huancayo mayoral elections?$7.01Aug 18, 08:29 UTC
- REWARD$8.48Aug 18, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $33.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 07:43 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 04:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.