Amusing-Probation-Reparation
0x3a931e183339a0c2a21ad4f6c31b55d0d4e1c43b
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
157
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-781.80
Realised
$-16.91
Win rate
0%
117 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 157- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
800 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- DOWN
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
595 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.95
- UP
Solana Up or Down - July 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
500 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
400 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-39.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
367 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-11.02
- YES
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?
200 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-36.00
- YES
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?
200 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-66.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
121 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-6.05
- YES
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?
110 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-33.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Portugal win on 2026-07-02? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?$232.57Jul 3, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Croatia win on 2026-07-02?$36.00Jul 2, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?$18.44Jul 2, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Spain (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5)$15.00Jul 2, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-07-02? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?$50.00Jul 2, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5)$44.99Jul 2, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$5.35Jul 2, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.80Jul 2, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.15Jul 2, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.15Jul 2, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.46Jul 2, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.60Jul 2, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$5.85Jul 2, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.60Jul 2, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.55Jul 2, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.90Jul 2, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.04Jul 2, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.01Jul 2, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.30Jul 2, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.15Jul 2, 06:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 117 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
117 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $5.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 05:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 117 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.